How Successful was Quebec's Curfew at Decreasing Transmission of COVID-19?

Quebec’s last curfew was put in place during the peak of the second wave. During this time, the number of daily COVID cases dropped significantly.

But can we attribute the drop in COVID cases to the curfew? Some are skeptical, including Simon Bacon, researcher for iCare. iCare stands for international covid-19 awareness and responses evaluation study, a study based at the Montreal Behavioural Medical Centre, focused on behaviours, attitudes, concerns, impacts and responses to COVID-19 public health policies.

Bacon says it's difficult to obtain curfew data because it's in combination with other public health measures, therefore we cannot isolate the data.

The Quebec health ministry said in a statement, that “Observational studies show that [the curfew] was useful in preventing travel and gatherings at a time when the number of cases in the general population remained high.” However, according to a study conducted by Quebec’s public health institute, home gatherings remained mostly consistent before and during the curfew. 

Two months before the first curfew in Quebec, in November 2020, the average number of an individual’s daily household contacts accounted for 1.7 In December, this increased to 1.8 During the first three months of the curfew in 2021, this number dropped back to 1.7. Bacon says this shows home gatherings were not changed as a result of the curfew. He also identified that in general, home gatherings do not contribute greatly to the spread of COVID-19, pointing out that workplaces and schools are notorious environments for spreading COVID-19.

This interview was used in an episode of Local 514, which focused on the Montreal and Quebec governments punitive measures during the pandemic and how it has affected Montrealers.

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