NB Could See 5,000 COVID-19 cases a Day by End of January

New Brunswick is now recording over 1000 new cases of COVID-19 a day and there are likely more cases going undetected or unreported thanks to exclusive use of at-home rapid tests for the non-vulnerable population. Chief Epidemiologist for the province Mathieu Chalifoux is projecting that New Brunswick will reach the peak of the fifth wave that's being propelled by highly contagious Omicron variant in a few weeks--likely by the end of January or beginning of February. 

“At our peak weeks, we can expect over 5,000 New Brunswickers developing the disease daily. Over a five-day period, this would be about 25,000 individuals. Assuming 2.3 individuals per household, this could mean over seven per cent, or approximately 55,000 people, isolating at any given moment," said Chalifoux. “This will impact not only our health-care system, but also other critical services such as fire departments, police departments, power services and so on and so forth.”

On Tuesday, January 11, New Brunswick reported having a record 88 people in hospital with COVID-19. The province is forecasting 220 active hospitalizations by early February. Also putting a strain on the healthcare system: there are currently 377 health-care workers who have tested positive for COVID-19 and are isolating.

With the peak of Omicron still a few weeks off, the province is moving closer to hitting the threshold that would trigger a move to Level 3, the most restrictive level of the province's winter plan. To move to Level 3, there would need to be a total of 100 people with COVID-19 in hospital, or 50 people in intensive care. Although Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Jennifer Russell says Public Health is holding off on moving to the more restrictive level until the level requirement changes are actually met, she is urging New Brunswickers to limit their contact with others as much as possible to help reduce the spread of the virus.

If a move to Level 3 is triggered, New Brunswickers could expect to see a similar reality to what we experienced at beginning of the pandemic almost two years ago. In level 3, only essential retailers can be open; spas, salons, gyms, and entertainment centres are closed; restaurants can only do takeout; faith services must move outdoors or online; and New Brunswickers must limit their social circle to their own household. 

Vaccinations remain our best defense against hospitalizations, and currently all New Brunswickers 18 and older are eligible for a booster dose if at least five months have passed since their second shot.